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Hence, if h, is close to 1, a gross error in yz will not necessarily show up in T,. But it might show up elsewhere, say in Tk, if hk, happens to be large. For instance, in the introductory example of Section 7.1 (fit I), we have h6 = 0.936, and the influence of the gross error in y6 shows up in r1. Points with large self-influence h, are, by definition, leverage points. The precise meaning of large is debatable. We may take it to mean that the self-influence of y, is large relative to the average self-influence p / n of a single observation. Or we may take it to mean that the self-influence is large in comparison with the combined influence of the other observations. The latter characterization implies a definition in terms of the absolute, rather than the relative, size of h,; note that in the classical least squares case the zth observation contributes a component h:02 to the variance h,02 of while all others together contribute h,(l - h,)a2.In view of results such as Theorem 7.3, we prefer the latter characterization. We may say that l / h z is the equivalent number of observations entering into the determination of 8,. We show below that, if h, = l / k and if we duplicate the ith row of X (make an additional observation there), then h, is changed to l / ( k 1). In other words, if h, is large, it can easily be decreased by duplication or triplication of the observation y,. (In practice, approximate duplication, i.e., observing under slightly varied conditions, is to be preferred over exact duplication, since this helps to avoid repetition of systematic errors.) We now work this out in detail. We have

that was best for the average patient was worst for every individual patient! Poorly targeted treatment is common In preparation for a workshop on medical decision making, I once informally interviewed several physicians on this subject and was particularly struck by the comments of a doctor in a cardiac unit of a large hospital He described how treatment was speci ed for patients with blocked coronary arteries The two primary choices are coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), which transplants a vein from the patient s leg into the heart, and angioplasty, which inserts a small balloon into the offending artery and in ates it to create greater blood ow It works like this, said the physician, If the admitting doctor is an open heart surgeon, the patient gets a CABG If the doctor specializes in angioplasty, the patient gets the balloon.

View (Public Instance Property)

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If you ever go to the hospital with chest pains, just hope you aren t admitted by a proctologist Recall the problem of false positives discussed in the context of detecting terrorists The same issue occurs when detecting rare diseases For example, in spite of the seriousness of HIV, the percentage of the US population that is infected is still small Thus, universal HIV testing would likely result in many more false positives (uninfected people who tested positive) than true positives As a further example, a recent study reported in Time Magazine indicates that women who perform self-exams to detect breast cancer may be doing themselves more harm than good1 How They end up having nearly twice as many biopsies with benign results, which are expensive and present their own risks On a similar note, the US.

Preventive Services Task Force, a panel of medical experts, has now recommended that men over age 75 not be routinely screened for prostate cancer2 Why If the test detects cancer, they probably would have it, but the treatment is no picnic, and the cancer is slow growing, so they would likely be dead of other causes by the time the therapy did any good Need more examples More Harm Than Good, by Alan Zelicoff (an MD), and Michael Bellomo (who works for Baxter Biosciences), is full of them3 The book stresses the importance of the statistically attuned patient For example, they discuss a hypothetical 59-yearold athletic male patient with no signs of cardiovascular disease who is nonetheless worried because a relative had a heart attack Through a sequence of ill-advised tests, each of which has a high.

Authentication of end-users is a technique that has matured over the evolution of remote access systems. Authentication is the ability to identify the user of the service requested. Using state-of-the art technologies, several mechanisms can be deployed in the same system. Authentication needs to be performed at the user level, not the machine level. Ideally, the security architecture will support multifactor authentication that corresponds to the value of the

20: Browsing the Web ............................................................................................................. 789 21: Managing E-mail and Contacts ....................................................................................... 837 22: Managing Your Schedule................................................................................................. 865 23: Your Life in Sync Windows 7 and Live Services ......................................................... 899

4.2 8.5 4.8 6.0

How to claim credit without looking boastful, incurring the wrath of others, and being deemed a public nuisance There are ways, fortunately. No one succeeds by merely correcting weaknesses. We must grow

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